Tinotenda Hove- The Government’s projection of 5 percent economic growth in 2027 is likely to face intense scrutiny as Zimbabwe heads into another year overshadowed by the threat of an El Niño-induced drought and uncertainty in global commodity markets.

Although Treasury is presenting an optimistic outlook in the 2027 Budget Strategy Paper, critics argue that the ambitious growth target contrasts sharply with the serious economic risks acknowledged by the Government itself.

The strategy paper, presented by Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube, forms part of the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2: 2026–2030). While it promises continued macroeconomic stability, it also concedes that major threats could derail the country’s economic ambitions.

Treasury expects the economy to grow by 5 percent in 2027, driven mainly by the mining, manufacturing and energy sectors. It is also targeting a budget deficit of just 0.5 percent of GDP and maintaining single-digit inflation.

However, Professor Ncube admitted that the outlook is clouded by significant risks.
“The outlook is…subject to significant downside risks, which could materially affect the projected growth in 2027, owing to a forecast El Niño-induced drought expected to affect Southern Africa during the 2026/2027 agricultural season and a possible weakening of precious mineral prices on international markets,” he said.

He further acknowledged the impact these challenges could have on the economy, saying, “Softening mineral prices weigh on foreign currency receipts and slow expansion programmes in the mining sector, while the anticipated drought would reduce agricultural output and depress the performance of agriculture-linked sectors.

The Finance Minister also conceded that the looming threats require urgent action, stating, “These risks underscore the need to intensify economic diversification, enhance value addition and beneficiation, as well as accelerate targeted irrigation development to strengthen resilience to climate-related shocks.”

The Government’s projections are likely to be met with scepticism by many observers, who argue that repeated promises of strong economic growth have often been overshadowed by persistent economic hardships, climate shocks and declining household incomes.

With drought threatening agricultural production and commodity prices remaining unpredictable, questions remain over whether the ambitious targets outlined in the budget can realistically be achieved.